W2WF: North Carolina (ACC Semifinals)

There is no better juxtaposition of history than a matchup between Boston College and North Carolina. The Tar Heels represent the ACC's blue bloods and are an elite-level program. They qualified for the second-ever NCAA Tournament and are on the verge of a dozen conference championships. They haven't won a national championship, but they remain a nationally-recognized name littered with MLB alumni. The conference tournament is played only 21 miles from UNC's campus in Chapel Hill, though the stadium itself is a home for its nemesis, Duke. The University of North Carolina is a pillar of the old guard and is the foundation of the ACC.

BC, meanwhile, represents everything that's existed since the first round of realignment and expansion. The Eagles went to four College World Series between 1953 and 1967, but didn't qualify for a national tournament while members of the Big East. It's the northernmost outpost of the ACC, hundreds of miles away from the conference's heartbeat home on Tobacco Road. Massachusetts might as well be on another planet in a conference identified by its historic geographic footprint, and Boston College is the polar opposite of its southern roots.

It's a matchup that almost didn't happen. North Carolina beat Virginia to open Pool D play earlier in the week, then set a collision course with Miami after the No. 4 Hurricanes defeated the Cavaliers on Thursday. Friday's game decided which team would play BC, which long wrapped up Pool A, and early on, it looked like a surefire rematch of the 2016 NCAA Super Regionals between the Hurricanes and Eagles after Miami opened up a 5-0 lead through five innings.

UNC rallied, though, with three runs in the fourth and fifth, then tied the game in the eighth to force extra innings. The game then became a marathon as it stretched through the ninth and 10th, eventually settling into an 11-inning affair that ended just shy of four hours. It was the last game of pool play, but it ended with the Tar Heels advancing thanks to a couple of small ball plays.

"I'm just unbelievably proud of our players and our team," UNC head coach Mike Fox said. "To get punched in the mouth like that early and come back and win the game. It's just a credit to them and their resiliency. We talk all the time about how you respond to things, and just kind of challenged them there after the third inning and get great response from everybody in the dugout. It was an incredible win for us, I thought."

Saturday's semifinal game carries weight into the ACC's soul. Both teams had to go undefeated in pool play to advance, and they meet in a single-elimination game to determine who plays for a conference championship. There isn't much history between BC and UNC, but it instead takes on the feeling that one of the league's truest franchises will enjoy a home field advantage against a team known for being able to play on the road.

The future of the league will be determined in a battle between its past and its present. Here's what to watch for when BC takes the diamond against the Heels on Saturday afternoon:

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Game Day Storylines

To boldly go where others won't.

Boston College played 10 regular season series against ACC opponents this year. Only one swept the Eagles by picking up three victories over a weekend: North Carolina.

The Tar Heels beat BC three times in late April, sweeping the Eagles by winning the first two games in extra innings. An 8-7 victory preceded an 11-10 victory, both in 11 innings, before UNC dropped a 16-8 decision for the third game.

It continued some pretty harsh trends against the Eagles. BC hasn't beaten UNC since 2014, a string of 11 consecutive games, and holds only two victories over the Tar Heels in 30 tries. BC is 2-28 lifetime against UNC, even though both wins came during the ACC era.

BC has never beaten UNC away from Massachusetts, a record that ran to 0-18 with the losses earlier this year. While this game represents a single-elimination, anything-is-possible type of event, it will need to reverse some pretty bad history.

Early Birds

UNC has the quickest turnaround of any team in the tournament after having to play Miami in the second game on Friday. The Tar Heels started Austin Bergner in that game, but they essentially lost use of Austin Love after the latter threw more than six innings and over 90 pitches.

"(Love) was the key to the game," Fox said. "Obviously we've got to score, but you've got to hold down a really good offensive team to get back in the game. Austin's been really good for us all year. He's a great story, just set out last year and got better this year and this summer. He came back this fall and is just a completely different guy. He's only gotten better and better as the year went on. We've extended him to 92 pitches, the most he's thrown all year."

Love's long outing means that the Diamond Heels will rely on Will Sandy to start the semifinal matchup. The freshman struggled down the stretch and was lit up for 10 runs in his last two appearances, though he did complete six innings against Pittsburgh. He hasn't held an opponent without an earned run in three appearance and hasn't pitched a scoreless game since throwing one inning against UMass-Lowell in his fourth outing of the season. This will also mark Sandy's first start of the year.

The BC lineup was patient and timely against both Clemson and Louisville, picking its sports when opportunities presented itself. On Saturday, those might come early and often. The goal should be to jump on Sandy early to try and build a lead, though the UNC bats are still able to close the gap in a hurry.

Even in an extra inning game, UNC only used four pitchers. Bergner and Love threw a combined 119 pitches over nearly eight innings, saving the bullpen from a long haul performance. Even with Joey Lancellotti throwing over two innings to collect his sixth win of the year, the rest of the pitching staff remains intact for a run at the weekend.

Get "Wit" It

Nearly every tool in the pitching staff is available for Boston College after Dan Metzdorf went the distance against Louisville. That means lanky right-hander John Witkowski draws the start against the extremely potent UNC lineup.

Witkowski enters Saturday with 26 innings, and he began the season as BC's closer. He was largely effective in the role, and his numbers remained impressive until three outings down the stretch resulted in eight earned runs, skewing his ERA north of 6.00. He allowed only two earned runs in his first six outings, both coming in a four-inning outing against Bethune-Cookman.

Those numbers rocketed north due to three consecutive outings after that, then missed a month's worth of time before returning for the stretch run. After holding opponents scoreless in three out of four outings, he ended the year with a tough outing against Maine before pitching over three innings against Notre Dame.

Witkowski has only thrown 104 innings through his four years at BC, but he remains the prototypical opener for the pitching staff. He is capable of changing speeds with a deceptive delivery, and he's always been a go-to pitcher out of the bullpen. He also brings a strong baseball IQ to the table, which will be necessary to hold the fort in the early innings while the offense hopefully gets to the UNC pitching staff.

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Meteorology 101

The good news for BC is that North Carolina doesn't change hour-to-hour like it does in New England. The 80-degree weather from the first two games isn't suddenly changing into 40 degrees with a biting, raw wind. The bad news, though, is that it means the 80-degree temperature is still going to be hot.

Temperatures in Durham will creep up over 90 on Saturday, meaning the Eagles will be playing in incredibly hot conditions. It's not unlike the temperatures they saw throughout the season, and teams are usually adjusted to playing in that heat by this point of the year. But it's still worth noting the heat index for those of us who are just thrilled to peek at 80 this weekend.

The weather should stay pretty consistent with partly cloudy skies. Essentially, this is what the team will see the rest of the way, and if you asked anyone in attendance, it's perfect baseball weather. Maybe I'm just the curmudgeon from New England that's still bitter that spring never really showed up this year. Actually, wait. I know I'm that guy.

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The National Tournament, Explained

The college baseball tournament is one of the most unique in college sports. 64 teams are slotted into 16 regionals, each with four teams. The regionals are all double-elimination, so a team that loses in the first round can still advance as a bracket champion. They are also all hosted at campus sites, and the No. 1 seed is usually chosen unless circumstances prevent the team from having games on its home field.

Regional winners advance to the baseball's Sweet Sixteen, referred to as the Super Regionals. These are best-of-three series where the head-to-head winner must win two games, and losses do not carry over from the regional round. The better national seed is the default host, unless circumstances prevent it from hosting.

Teams that advance through the Super Regionals then qualify for the College World Series. Unlike other sports, which crown a Final Four, baseball's CWS involves eight teams in double-elimination brackets. The winners of those brackets advance to a best-of-three series in the College World Series final, which crowns the national champion. Also unlike other sports, the entire College World Series is played annually at a static location in Omaha, Nebraska. For years, that was Rosenblatt Stadium, though it more recently moved to TD Ameritrade Stadium.

That does mean the national champion can lose up to four games over its journey, but that's what makes baseball unique.

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Scoreboard Watching, ACC Edition

Pools B and C both went according to chalk with the top seed advancing, so the other semifinal matchup on Saturday will feature No. 2 Georgia Tech and No. 3 NC State. The Eagles saw both of those teams this year on consecutive weekends to start April and took one win in each series. After losing the first two games, BC defeated the Pack Nine, which was ranked No. 1 in the nation at the time, with a 3-1 decision on Sunday. The next weekend, BC routed No. 17 Georgia Tech, 9-2, before dropping the latter two. Both of those series, it should be noted, were in Boston.

Besides the ACC trophy, both of those teams have plenty to play for in the national picture. The NCAA slots 16 teams into national seeds, all of which then vie for the right to host a regional unless circumstances prevent it from happening. A top-eight national seed provides the roadmap to determine who would host a Super Regional, if a team can advance.

According to Baseball America's projected field of 64, Georgia Tech is the No. 10 seed, which puts it in position to host a regional in Atlanta. It's a bracket opposite No. 7 Texas Tech, which means the Yellow Jackets would host a Super Regional if they advance and if the Red Raiders are eliminated from their regional in Lubbock, Texas.

NC State, meanwhile, has tumbled since it was the No. 1 team in the nation, though a slight trending uptick places it as the No. 13 seed. Like Georgia Tech, it would host a regional but would need the top seed in its bracket pairing to not advance. For the Pack Nine, that's No. 4 Mississippi State, if Baseball America's projection is correct.

Now consider what's at stake for the Tar Heels. UNC is a lock for the national tournament but is currently projected to the No. 2 seed in a regional hosted by East Carolina, which would be the No. 8 team. That means the team could still play its way into hosting a regional if it somehow wins the ACC. A loss to BC, though, could prove catastrophic for that possibility, conceivably dropping the team into a regional hosted away from the Carolinas. It's a door that's opening after UNC beat Miami, which had the inside track to hosting a regional, but now will find itself simply hoping to hold on after losing in 11 innings on Friday.

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Scoreboard Watching, NCAA Edition

The Eagles are still outside the bubble, according to the most recent projections. They are ranked No. 53 in the RPI rankings, which is the mathematical formula to determine a team's strength. That's ahead of Wake Forest, behind Florida State and Virginia and further of a chase against Duke and Clemson. Each win creeps them a little bit closer to the field of 64, but it's still just far enough back to keep the glass ceiling from shattering altogether.

Nationally, the Eagles are considered among the "Next Four Out," which means they need a little bit of help to get into the tournament. They're in a grouping with Virginia Commonwealth, Texas State and Liberty, all of which suffered fatal blows during conference tournaments. VCU went 0-2 in the Atlantic 10 Conference, losing to Fordham and Richmond after earning a bye as regular season champion. The same thing happened to Texas State, which was outscored 21-4 in losses to Louisiana-Monroe and Coastal Carolina. Liberty, meanwhile, lost a game in the Second Round of the Atlantic Sun Tournament, severely damaging its hopes unless it rallies to win it all.

That pits BC against three other major opponents. Florida, Central Florida and Southern Mississippi are the three teams most likely to jockey on the bubble, and all suffered some pretty singeing defeats. UCF, for example, has 34 wins and is ranked No. 45 in the RPI, but it also lost to Tulane in the First Round of the AAC Tournament.

That said, a rematch win in the Second Round erased that and pushed it forward into a best-of-three series with Cincinnati, which remains under .500 despite finishing second in the regular season. UCF will have some special attention on it in this series, since it needs to beat the Bearcats twice in order to advance to the AAC final.

A sleeper factor in that conference is Wichita State, which became a major factor when it dominated East Carolina. The Shockers lost their Second Round game against Connecticut, but they beat ECU twice en route to the semifinal round rematch with the Huskies. The Shockers will need to beat UConn twice to advance, and they remain a potential bracket buster as long they remain active. The Huskies, meanwhile, are a virtual lock for the NCAA Tournament.

Southern Mississippi stands to benefit the most from that chaos, especially since Florida already bombed out of the SEC Tournament. The Golden Eagles finished second in Conference USA, which is widely recognized as a very good baseball league, then advanced to the semifinals without a loss.

So from a BC perspective, there still needs to be a lot of jockeying and moving pieces to ensure the Eagles get into the tournament. One win should move the team into the next tier, which would be right on the bubble looking in. Two wins would guarantee, mathematically, an at-large bid. Two wins, though, would also mean an ACC championship and the automatic qualifier to the NCAA Tournament, which in turn could knock out one of the teams mentioned above.

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Pregame Quote and Prediction Time

You can't beat the person who never gives up. -Babe Ruth

This is a really intriguing matchup from a pure baseball sense. Boston College essentially never beats North Carolina, but the Tar Heels aren't - and to a degree can't - throw their weekend staff at the Eagles. They're just trying to make it through to the next round at this point and are likely taking a "survive and advance" approach. The 11-inning game and late finish against Miami also doesn't help, especially considering the extra rest for the Eagles.

So the key to this game will be which team imposes its style on the early innings. UNC has a power bat in its lineup; Aaron Sabato is hitting .358 with 10 home runs in conference play alone and is one of the league's most feared hitters. BC, meanwhile, doesn't have any hitters that jump off the page but beat teams by simply going through the entire lineup.

The team that does that earliest will likely have the advantage, and the club capable of staying in that groove will play again on Sunday for a conference championship. Boston College and North Carolina don't have a true baseball rivalry - at least not yet - but history has a way of being written on the baseball diamond when it's least expected.

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