The Opening Tip: NC State

Former New York Knicks head coach Jeff Van Gundy once described the NBA as a "make-or-miss league." Now a lead assistant for the Los Angeles Clippers and Tyronn Lue, he is credited at times with coining a term that defines the current style of play as the difference between literally making or missing shots regardless of a team's style of play. Results are based strictly on putting the ball in the hole, which itself is a simplistic way of boiling down the goals of the different strategies and formations embedded within the 48-minute, four-quarter game.

"Make-miss" games are part of basketball at every level and were specifically referenced by Boston College head coach Earl Grant as part of his team's notable losses from the early weeks of the 2025-2026 season. Struggles on three-pointers, an inability to consistently get to the rim, a number of missed free throws - and an opponent's timely success in each of those areas - cost the Eagles wins at various intervals. Frustrating, for sure, but exacerbation stemmed from film and analytics supporting the objectives of a team that trusted its feel and proof of concept, particularly after Saturday's loss to Georgia Tech inflicted the first wound of the Atlantic Coast Conference schedule.

"The biggest thing that we wanted to do was control the tempo," said Grant after BC dropped a 65-53 decision in Atlanta. "That was a major key, to play at our pace. We want to run, we want to attack, we want to get easy baskets, but if we're not getting anything easily, we want to be poised and patient, and we didn't do a good enough job of that. When we came back [from a double-digit deficit in the first half], we were very poised and very patient. We executed better."

The simplicity of a make-miss game boils the structure of the loss to simple math and numbers that don't support one team's performance or expectations. An outlying production is often the result, and on Saturday, Fred Payne and Donald Hand Jr. shot a combined 3-for-26 that unquestionably landed on an assumption's outer rim. Payne in particular missed all seven three-point attempts after draining half of his outside attempts against Le Moyne, and his two points represented the lowest output since scoring seven against LSU at the start of February. More specifically, it was the fourth time this year that he scored less than 10 points, but two of those results were against Florida Atlantic and The Citadel in the first two games of the season.

Hand didn't comparatively have those numbers, but his 2-for-13 performance from the floor held the lowest field goal percentage since the same ACC/SEC Challenge game against the Tigers. He'd been 8-for-19 against Le Moyne and 6-for-16 against UMass because of the team's desire to pump its offense through outside looks before Hand specifically drove the paint for contact and trips to the free throw line.

"We had some open threes that we didn't make," said Grant. "We also took a few that we shouldn't have taken. I thought we needed to turn down a good shot for a better shot, and that happened to us multiple times. Obviously, [Georgia Tech] was long, and their length bothered us on some of those shots, but we had some open looks that we missed. NOw that said, we were up four when we came back, and we were up four with seven minutes to go. So we just needed to execute [better]. They had a two-or-three possession run, and that's all it took in a game like this."

Here's what to watch when BC returns to home court for Tuesday's late night matchup with NC State::

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NC State Storylines (The Godfather Edition)

Michael: My father went to his bandleader and offered him $10,000 to let Johnny go, but the bandleader said no. So the next day, my father went back, only this time with Luca Brasi. Within an hour, he had a signed release for a certified check of $1,000
Kay: How did he do that?
Michael: My father made him an offer he couldn't refuse.

In my eyes, The Godfather is easily the greatest story told through a feature film. It works slowly to build Michael Corleone's transition from the family's misunderstood youngest child into its most cold-hearted and insulated leader. He initially joined the Marines to assert his own independence from a family underworld that he eventually embraced more wholeheartedly than any other character. Because of that, his turn is both less shocking and more deliberate than Sonny - the son who wanted to lead the family but enjoyed playing gangster a little too much - or Fredo - the son who wanted to lead the family but was self conscious about his own obvious incompetence. In the end, everyone is seeking approval at a familial level while protecting the greater Corleone mission.

Boston College is starting to reach the crossroads where its players are fully committing to a particular future. Even with the Georgia Tech game, the Eagles are a three-point shooting team that's averaged 30 percent or higher on eight separate occasions. They're one of the most elite teams in the country at defending the three, but their three-point percentage is six percent below the national average. In a world where they're taking 25 three-point shots per game, that works out to 1.5 extra made threes to reach the national average.

"I think every possession, you want to get the best shot that you can get," explained Grant. "Obviously the closer you are to the basket, the easier the shot is to make. Layups, dunks and fouls, those are the easiest shots, but the three is worth more. It's easy math. You can make three or four threes, and that's 12 points where you need to make six twos to do it."

NC State is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation, but the number pushes context into how to slow down the offense and prevent its outside looks. From a pace perspective, BC is one of the more deliberate teams in the nation, and the more successful teams against the Wolfpack toyed with longer-timed offenses. Kansas and Ole Miss, for example, run offenses that eat time more similar to the Eagles while Texas Southern, which lost a 108-72 game to NC State, allows the shortest time per possession in the nation.

Sonny: You're taking this very personal. Tom, this is business and this man is taking it very, very personal.

Sonny never quite understood Michael's full understanding of the family business. He assumed Michael couldn't execute Sollozzo as a retaliatory act against the Barzini family because he assumed that Michael didn't understand the family business. Instead of asking him if he understood what was required, he instead goaded Michael, which instead drove his brother further and further into the business. In other words, he made the decision very, very personal by basically insulting his brother through the terms of their family life.

Getting back to basketball, I felt like Georgia Tech edged BC away from those deliberate and patient offensive sets that run the clock down with a patience for the right shot at the basket. The Yellow Jackets were big and long, but not finding ways through or around the defenders forced the Eagles into shots that ultimately missed more frequently. Lamar Washington had 11 defensive rebounds because he ran from the point position while Baye Ndongo boxed out of the low post with ruthless efficiency that led to a fast break, up-tempo style that the Eagles worked tirelessly to earlier eradicate.

"We had already cleaned up most of the transition game," said Grant, "but I thought, later, that they had two run-outs that got free throws. There was a three-to-four minute cluster in the last five minutes where almost every possession was either a foul or a run-out. Early in the game, we started out and didn't execute the way that we needed to, and they hurt us in transition, and when we cleaned it up, we were really good. And then with six minutes left, we had a couple of bad mistakes that hurt us, and they got transition baskets."

Eleven offensive rebounds by the Yellow Jackets helped pair 34 points in the paint with 23 fastbreak points while the Eagles posted 24 points in the paint without a single point on the break. They outrebounded the offensive window but couldn't gain advantages because of that pace and the quickness that eventually absolved Georgia Tech of any of its mistakes.

Essentially, Georgia Tech was able to run the floor and move quickly to score when it missed its first opportunity. That's not a style that's built for BC's success, so even the offensive rebounds didn't produce enough second chance points after the Eagles failed to score on the run.

Don Corleone: A friend should always underestimate your virtues and an enemy overestimate your faults.

One last point about Georgia Tech, and then it's time to move on.

I totally understand how a lack of made field goals sunk BC's game on Saturday afternoon. In a make-miss environment, making more shots wins that game, and this isn't the first time that the Eagles faced postgame questions about placement or selection or how to run their offense through certain areas when metrics aren't trending to the right area. In a world where failures are orphaned, especially on a basketball court, that's the spot that draws the hottest spotlight.

BC's defense, though, is really good. Georgia Tech shot 3-for-13 from outside and was further held to 21 made field goals on 53 attempts - the third straight game that the Eagles held an opponent below 40 percent. Just one team over BC's last five games shot better than 40 percent, and even that game against UMass ended in a two-point loss more readily chalked up to the free throw attempts amassed by both teams in the game at Springfield's MassMutual Center. Even LSU shot .403 from the floor, which makes Tulane the only time an opponent hit 50 percent of its shots.

Knowing that Payne and Hand won't shoot as poorly as Saturday's numbers, BC is therefore a legitimate threat to beat teams. Over the course of this season, the Eagles are a perfect 7-0 when shooting a better field goal percentage - again pointing back to make-miss - and lost by one to a Central Connecticut team that made one more field goal on six less attempts.

"We have to give Georgia Tech some credit," said Grant. "They are pretty big on the perimeter, so you don't want to take away from the fact that they're hard to guard. I just think that we weren't poised at times. We were very aggressive and attacking, but sometimes we were forcing things when we didn't need to. We needed to wait and let things develop, and Georgia Tech had something to do with it with their length."

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Question Box

How tournament-ready is NC State?

Let's finally move on and look at an NC State team that used its first dozen-plus games to cement a candidacy for the national tournament. Situated in the top-35 of the KenPom rankings, the Wolfpack demolished a couple of above-average, high-major teams from conferences that aren't considered power leagues. They crushed a Liberty team that defeated Florida Atlantic and Dayton ahead of its first three Conference USA wins before recording a pair of wins over Ole Miss and Wake Forest, the latter in their ACC opener. Going back to even the Kansas game in overtime, there's a reason why NC State snuck into the polls in the first three weeks before sitting on the edge of the teams receiving weekly votes.

ESPN's Joe Lunardi moved the Wolfpack down to a No. 10 seed in the Midwest Regional in his most updated Bracketology post, but NC State still holds one of the last four byes and would face Villanova as part of a grouping that's being hosted by the Carolinas and includes Vanderbilt as the No. 2 seed out of the SEC.

How much did the loss to Virginia impact the team's viewpoint?

Honestly, not that much. Virginia lost to Virginia Tech in a triple-overtime thriller on New Year's Eve before playing the Wolfpack on Saturday, so it's not surprising that the Cavaliers opened with first half kinetic energy capable of building a 20-point lead. The game needed to stabilize through the second half, and I'm convinced that a more traditional start for NC State would have shortened a 15-point deficit into a closer game for the latter minutes.

The flat start certainly didn't help matters, but Virginia's defensive mindset stopped the NC State three-point shooting in its tracks. Going 5-for-20 on outside shots was uncharacteristic for one of the nation's top outside shooting rosters, and Quadir Copeland finished with 15 points on 5-of-11 shooting and four assists - numbers that aren't near what was reasonably expected from him. Paul McNeil, Jr. likewise shot 3-for-7 from the floor, as did Alyn Breed, and nobody really got out of first gear until the deficit was too great to overcome.

How big is big?

Last year's NC State iterations ran directly through a point guard as part of an offense built primarily around smaller shooters. This year's team, though, changed its composition by adding Copeland to a lineup built more heavily around McNeil's development. Both are technically guards, but each player is taller than the traditional point guard-shooting guard setup that typically showcases a smaller and more agile mover. Throw in the addition of Ven-Allen Lubin in the frontcourt, and this is an NC State team that's capable of launching shots while simultaneously crashing the rim and boards.

Who wins the battle between Ven-Allen Lubin and the BC frontcourt?

Speaking of Lubin, I'm quickly becoming a big fan of shifting lineups to include versatile centers capable of protecting the rim while maintaining a team's outside integrity. Now on his fourth team in four years, he's worked through various systems designed to harness his skills in different ways. Beginning his career as a reserve forward for Notre Dame, for example, kept him away from the offense while allowing his rebounding skills to remain at the forefront, and a switch to Vanderbilt swung him into a more offensive mindset while further deploying and enhancing his offensive rebounding ability.

A move back to the ACC put him under North Carolina's high-pressure tutelage while dialing back the offensive requirements that the Commodores required, and now playing for NC State puts him into the same system that properly moved DJ Burns throughout its offense during its miracle run to the Final Four.

Even with last year's shift away from being built around a big man, he's a similar piece to Burns by playing an undersized mid-post center who can swing out of the paint.

How many cups of coffee are necessary for a 9 p.m. tipoff?

Not enough. Look, I used to LOVE the 9 p.m. tipoff. Having all day to go through my entire day before settling into a live basketball game made me happier than whenever I'd watch the Boston Celtics tip-off on the West Coast. I couldn't stay awake for games that ended after midnight, so the 9 p.m. start got me right into the sweet spot between the news and late night television. I was guilty of occasionally falling asleep a little too late in those days, so the game would end right in time for me to fall asleep to the news or a monologue.

I'm also not 25 years old anymore. Turning 40 converted the 10 p.m. hour into a full-blown witching hour for me. I'm both a morning person and a night owl when I need to push through certain things like an overnight shift at work, but having to combine a full day with a late night at an arena is not something that I'm equipped to handle anymore.

Enter the caffeine. I'm a coffee nerd, so I have blends and brands capable of keeping me sharp enough to move through different hours. I'm known for having a cheaper and mass-produced brand for the morning "whack-back" cup of wake-up, and I'll chase that with a more gourmet blend for the second cup of enjoyment. Afternoon or evening is usually a store-bought if I'm going into it, but that nighttime cup is always risky. Too much caffeine, and I'm not sleeping until 2 a.m. Too little, and I'm passing out at the press table.

And if this sounds like a science experiment, you've now figured out my health and well-being.

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BC-NC State X Factor

There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
Nothing you can say, but you can learn.
How to play the game.
It's easy.
-The Beatles, "All You Need Is Love"

NC State built a Final Four program by centering its style around its strongest players and assets. The Wolfpack understood how to augment DJ Burns with players who could drive to the basket or work around the perimeter for an outside-in methodology that further attacked the paint by probing it with irregularity. They weren't afraid to build a post presence by staying away from the low post, which is why they finished the year with one of the highest 2-point attempt distances in college basketball.

What's forgotten about that team is how it entered the conference tournament with a four-game losing streak, defeats in five out of its last six games, and a 2-7 record over its final nine games. NC State was an 11-3 team that finished its regular season with a 6-11 record over its last 17 games, and it only advanced to the NCAA Tournament because it won out in the ACC Tournament with the rarest five-wins-in-five-days over Louisville, Syracuse, Duke, Virginia and North Carolina.

That NC State team won basketball games by understanding and committing to a style of play that wasn't entirely popular. Burns rarely played 25-30 minutes until his breakout performance against Duke, and he was just 2-for-4 during a Sweet Sixteen win over Marquette. Beating the Blue Devils in the third game of their series with a 13-for-19 performance cemented his legacy and reputation as a gamer, but the 2023-2024 Wolfpack found different ways to roll their team around his play.

Cycling back to Tuesday night's game, it's apparent that NC State is getting closer to reimaging that style of play around its current personnel. Quadir Copeland is the type of player who can fill the bucket as a major contributor, and even though he's more of an outside presence than Burns ever played, his ability to carry the offensive core opens the door for Darrion Williams, Matt Able, Paul McNeil and Ven-Allen Lubin to operate around his capabilities.

BC's defensive reputation for shutting down those systems by mixing zone-to-man switches alongside its usual tenacity is therefore a huge component to the game-within-the-game. There hasn't been an indication that NC State can win a game against a power conference team if Copeland isn't the central focal point - McNeil's 47-point breakout included 11 made three-pointers but came against Texas Southern.

That doesn't mean "stop Copeland, win the game," but it does mean that the defense can force NC State into an uncomfortability if it holds the leading scorer to minimal impact.

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Scoreboard Watching

College basketball hasn't changed or shifted much over the past month. The last Coaches Poll moved Duke to No. 5 and Louisville to No. 13 while replacing USC with St. John's as the No. 25 team in the nation, but even the glacial pace at which the sport typically moves through its rankings continued to slow even further. Upsets weren't really occurring unless No. 13 Nebraska's win over No. 9 Michigan State counted for something, so it's probably more likely that Stanford's four-point win over Louisville stood alone compared to the rest of the ongoing daily scoreboard.

The schedule hasn't really had enough bite to its normal list of court-storming victories (actually, forget I said that…). Maybe there's something waiting for the Blue Devils when they play the Cardinals at the KFC Yum! Center, but the likelihood of calling it an "upset" is nowhere near the percentages facing No. 2 Michigan's trip to Penn State.

Aside from the Duke-Louisville game on ESPN's main channel, the only other ACC game is Syracuse at Georgia Tech as part of the ACC Network presentation directly preceding BC-NC State.

More nationally, several ranked Associated Press teams are in action, including the aforementioned game between Michigan and Penn State. No. 23 Georgia heads to No. 22 Florida at 7 p.m. while the only other game between two ranked teams include No. 15 Texas Tech and a trip to No. 8 Houston at 9 p.m. Among other top-25 teams, No. 17 Kansas hosts TCU while NO. 19 Tennessee hosts Texas, both at 9 p.m., and No. 25 Iowa - not to be confused with the St. John's team in the Coaches Poll - is at Minnesota.

Other games worth noting are Georgetown-DePaul, Cincinnati-West Virginia, St. John's-Butler, and UNLV-Wyoming with a late night dash of Fresno State's trip to San Jose State.

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This Random Day In History

The American Southwest is loaded with landscapes and scenery that isn't available in the Northeast. It's a completely different climate, which is one of the most obvious statements I've ever made, but its history blends the arid desert with cultural impacts from Spanish settlements, Mexican independence, Native American heritage, and good old fashioned American frontierism. It holds the same imaginative place for folks from the North as our winters and changing seasons carry for people in the South.

January 6 marks the 114th anniversary of New Mexico's admission into the United States. The state most known for its Hispanic population and culture holds exceptional value to the American war effort from its pre-statehood territorial era and later aided both the women's suffrage movement and the oil industry's expansion throughout the desert prospecting lands.

People often forget that the first nuclear weapon was successfully tested at Los Alamos, and Area 51's involvement in the extraterrestrial community overlooks the supposed alien incident at Roswell. To this day, the Carlsbad Caverns are on my bucket list, and I'm often mystified by the unincorporated lands dotting the border with the Mexican state of Chihuahua - as a history buff, Pacho Villa's raid on Columbus led to an invasion to capture the guerilla leader, but he escaped capture until he was assassinated in 1923.

And if none of that is enough, just remember that The Pit still stands in Albuquerque for the New Mexico Lobos, and that's still one of the wildest arenas in college sports.

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Pregame Quote and Final Thoughts

Expect the unexpected in the Kingdom of Madness. -Randy "Macho King" Savage

Weird things happen during late night start times. In 2016, the Boston College team that fought through its infamous winless ACC season took No. 9 North Carolina to within a three-point game, and the later game against NC State ended in a one-point loss after the Wolfpack scored with time running away from the second half. The next year, a one-point loss against Miami tipped off at 9 p.m., and the next year's game against Virginia Tech went to overtime after also starting at the later hour. Consecutive late nights in the ACC Tournament in 2024 brought BC within shouting distance of beating Virginia after upending Clemson.

Late night games on the East Coast are part of the television network structure within ACC basketball and have been on BC's schedule for enough years to avoid a surprise. Surprises, though, are inevitable.

Boston College and NC State tip-off at 9:00 p.m. on Tuesday from Conte Forum in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. National television coverage is available on the ACC Network with streaming available through ESPN's direct-to-consumer platform for subscribers with access to the network while radio coverage is available through WEEI 850 AM.

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