W2WF: Louisville

October football represents the most critical point of the season. Everything has a molded shape formulated by on-field performance and it starts with some teams already weeded from the list of likely bowl contenders. Conference races begin buckling down and what begins with a race's outline ends less than four weeks later with clearly defined contenders and pretenders.

It's very different from September because it's entirely less forgiving. Almost every team endures hiccups during the first month of the season and there's often speed bumps and hurdles through the first four games. Teams play like world beaters one week, but lack a week-to-week consistency because players, schemes and ideas aren't really in that midseason stride.

"There's a lot of great football to be played," head coach Steve Addazio said. "We're going to be a part of that. We're looking forward to it. We have been to some really competitive, good games, and we're just anxious to continue to improve to do that."

Addazio understands how fickle October can become. BC went 1-3 in his first season in 2013 and needed to go 4-1 in November in order to qualify for a bowl game. The next year, a two-win month positioned the program for a run at an upper tier bowl game. A winless October in 2015 torpedoed any hope of postseason play, but a 2-2 month in 2016 allowed it to reenter bowl discussions.

In 2017, BC was 2-4 before going 3-1, a run that pushed the team out of the ACC basement and into the bowl discussion again. The next year, 2018, saw BC go 2-1 after opening the year 4-1. It outright clinched a bowl bid and elevated the team to the national stage in time for November.

Throughout that entire stretch, only one opponent consistently appears: Louisville. The Cardinals joined the ACC in 2014 and became an instant midseason adversary for BC. They've been on the schedule every year in October except for that first year, when they came north in the first week of November, and 2016, when game week crossed over the two months.

It forces both teams to circle each other on the schedule. The 2014 Cardinals were 6-3 when they played BC, coming off a loss to Florida State, but a win over the Eagles helped propel them into a Belk Bowl matchup against Georgia. The next year, a 2-4 Louisville team won 17-14 at home and lost only one more game en route to an 8-5 season.

In 2016, quarterback Lamar Jackson demolished the BC defense with a 52-7 win and put the team in position to finish the year as Atlantic Division co-champions. In 2017, the AJ Dillon duel with Jackson eliminated any November push for any of the ACC's bowl choices above Tier I. And last year's loss was the fifth on the schedule, ultimately ending the Cardinals' hopes of postseason play considering the games remaining on the schedule in November.

There are other, bigger rivalries for both teams, but the game requires a special understanding to which this season is no different. Louisville is 2-2 and on the precipice of eradicating last year's disappointment. BC is 3-2, but needs this win to keep pace with Clemson and Wake Forest. Both teams need a win to better position their own bowl tier hunt.

"I think (we have to) absolutely stay in the moment," Addazio said. "I'm not worried about the calendar at all. It's just (to) stay in the moment because that's where (the season) is right now."

Here's what else to watch for heading into Saturday's game:

*****
Weekly Storylines

Get blitzed.

Louisville's 3-4 defense means only three players are guaranteed to attack the line of scrimmage. The fourth has to come from a different area on the field, which is why BC needs to be ready for a blitz-heavy package that will bring heat to the line of scrimmage. It will sell out for a sack or big play, which is a big reason why the team already has 27 tackles for loss and 11 sacks in its first four games.

"They pressure a lot and come from different angles," Steve Addazio said. "They are a big blitz team. I'm guessing that's why you see (sacks)."

A traditional blitz usually sends a fifth or sixth attacker straight up the middle at the line of scrimmage. The 3-4, though, plays further away from the traditional point of attack, which means more blitzes come from the safeties or cornerbacks. Because the four linebackers can fade into coverage, zone blitzes are more prevalent. The team leaders in that department are then coming from further back than the defensive end position.

Defensive back Khane Pass is the team's tackle leader, and 21 of his 28 tackles are of the solo variety. He has made two tackles for loss, a number tied with outside linebacker Boosie Whitlow and trailing only Rodjay Burns and Dorian Etheridge, also both linebackers.

None of the team's top seven tacklers are defensive down linemen. Amonte Caban is the team leader in that regard, ranking eighth with 13 tackles, including two for loss.

"It's not a four-man rush," Addazio said. "They blitz from the boundary and from the field. They pop free and create other problems."

Run, run Rudolph.

BC and Louisville stack up as the No. 1 and No. 2 rated rushing attacks in the ACC, but similar cores have very different styles. Both teams control the clock through its rushing attack, but the Cardinals use smaller, more slippery running backs compared to the raging bulls on the opposite sideline.

"Right out of the gate, to run for 250 yards against that defense, I thought was very solid," Scott Satterfield said. "Probably the most disappointing part was the pass game we had. (But) we have to do a better job running the football than we did at Florida State. We want to be over 200 yards. That's the benchmark we like to get rushing the football, and we were not able to get there. So we'll keep working at it and continue to try to find ways to run the ball. Offensive formations would help us a lot as well."

Javian Hawkins and Hassan Hall, for example, are both under 200 pounds, with the former well under six-feet tall. They have a combined 629 yards rushing and two touchdowns and work exceptionally well within the framework of a mobile quarterback. Through the first four games, Malik Cunningham and Jawon Pass are a combined 314 yards on 57 carries with two touchdowns apiece, but both were dinged up in the first month of the season.

There's a reasonable expectation that Louisville will pound the ball against BC in the same fashion that the Eagles do it to other teams. The key then becomes controlling drives and winning the line of scrimmage. It's a little old school in mentality and it means both defenses need to be ready for a physical day at the office.

Feed me a turnover.

Pass's return to Louisville after starting nine games last year proved he was on an upward trajectory. He combined run and pass numbers for over 200 yards against Notre Dame and torched Eastern Kentucky for 196 yards on 12-of-19 passing in the first two games of the season. But he suffered a foot injury against the Fighting Irish and aggravated it a week later to ultimately thrust quarterback duties to Cunningham.

The redshirt-sophomore excelled in his own right after taking over. He rushed for 73 yards to finish the win over EKU then passed for 199 yards and two scores against Western Kentucky to assert himself before playing Florida State. He promptly rallied Louisville from a deficit against the Seminoles by going 16-of-27 for 286 yards and two scores. It looked like a serious mounted challenge to Pass's incumbency - right up until Cunningham was hurt on the last play of the game.

Cunningham practiced during the week and will likely start against Boston College, but two injured quarterbacks is enough to cause concern against a ball-hawk defense.

"We're pretty healthy," Scott Satterfield said. "(Pass) has been getting better every day, but it's a really slow healing process with him. Malik looked a lot better. He was out there in cleats (on Sunday), and he's been out there getting better and better. Is (Pass) ready? It remains to be seen. But he's getting closer."

If for some reason neither quarterback can play, true freshman Evan Conley is the listed third quarterback on the depth chart.

*****
They Said It

"As a young guy, I was going with the ebbs and flows of the older guys. I wanted to be a sponge of everything, so I wasn't that vocal." -Running back AJ Dillon

"We have a good offensive line, good in protection and good in the running game. Coverage sacks aren't the line's fault. They're doing a great job." -BC head coach Steve Addazio

"It's disappointing right now, we haven't created many turnovers in four weeks." -Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield

*****
Countdown to Kickoff

10…Eight different players have 10 or more unassisted tackles for BC this year. All are either linebackers or defensive backs except for two: TJ Rayam and Tanner Karafa.
9…Nine of the teams' 11 meetings have been decided by a touchdown or more. Eight of those have been by multiple score differentials.
8…Louisville's offense is averaging the eighth most yards per completed pass in FBS, with 16.33 yards per play.
7…Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield is 0-7 lifetime against teams ranked inside the top 25 after the Cardinals lost to Notre Dame earlier this season.
6…The Cardinals offense is averaging over six yards per play this year, a full one yard improvement from last season.
5…BC has only five wins in the Addazio era when rushing for fewer yards than its opponent.
4…Neither team is going to be afraid of going for it on fourth down. Louisville is 5-of-9 while BC is 6-of-13 when keeping the offense on the field.
3…BC is undefeated when allowing three or less red zone scores this season. Conversely, the team is winless when allowing more than three red zone scores.
2…BC is second in the ACC and 24th nationally with 13.8 yards per offensive pass completion.
1...BC is the ACC's No. 1 team in rushing offense. The team ranked No. 2? Louisville.

*****
BC-Louisville X Factor

Third Down Conversion Rate

The BC offense is at its most threatening when the running game gets moving. The two-back approach led by Dillon and David Bailey, is capable of grinding defenses into fatigue if it continually moves the chains. It's designed to prevent substitutions and chew up some of the clock and it's why the Eagles largely pummel defenses, win or lose.

The Eagles will face a carbon copy type of offense this week when Louisville, the ACC's second-best rushing attack, challenges the BC defense. It creates a competing threat for defenses, which will battle bruising and physical weariness if either is on the field too long.

For that reason, getting off the field on third down is even more important than usual. BC's defense surrendered 17 third down conversions against Wake Forest last week, resulting in long, drawn out drives. Turning even three or four of those into fourth downs would likely have won the game beyond the two botched plays that cost BC six points.

"There's always an emphasis (on third downs)," Steve Addazio said. "That's standard operating procedure. You got to get off the field on third down and we're going real, real hard on both sides of the ball. That's it."

In contrast, BC's offense could do better in those situations. It created a number of explosive plays, but failed to convert a third down in the second, third and fourth quarters against Wake Forest. Creating new sets of downs extends drives, which fatigues defenses. It keeps opposing offenses off the field. It's incredibly important given the BC style and, this week, how its opponent plays to similar strengths.

"It's very important," Addazio reinforced. "We'll work hard to make sure that we stay on the field on offense and get off on defense."

*****
Meteorology 101

My weather widget told me that Louisville hit 90 degrees this week. Even though this week got humid and muggy in Boston, I still can't believe that there's a place willing to get that hot this late into the fall. Then again, maybe I've just been living in New England so long that anything north of 65 degrees in October is abnormal.

That said, it's worth noting that I had my first apple cider donut of the season this weekend. Everyone is turning everything they eat or drink into a pumpkin spice something or other, but I'm a little classic. I don't like the pumpkin spice latte or a pumpkin sugar rim on my drink, but I love the taste of a fresh-picked apple. The apple cider donut is a fleece hoodie in food form. It's warm, comforting and utterly amazing.

It's probably an unpopular take, but when I'm completely lost in a corn maze in a couple weeks, the only thing that will get me out is a donut's warm smell and taste. I look forward to completely unraveling any diet and exercise regimen on them.

*****
Scoreboard Watching

Three of the top four teams in the ACC are on a bye this week, meaning the intensity and importance of all remaining games is highlighted by a spotlight factor. There are only four games in the ACC this weekend, all of which are conference games with teams jockeying for potential positioning mentioned at the top.

For BC and Louisville, a second league loss all but eliminates the division picture after Saturday. Clemson and Wake Forest are both undefeated in conference play, with the No. 2 Tigers already holding three wins. Florida State is right behind the two with a 2-1 record after beating the Cardinals last week. NC State and Syracuse both have one loss. A second league loss pushes either team below the entire division in that regard and creates a very direct route to an upper tier bowl game in the first week of October.

In the Coastal Division, No. 23 Virginia is still undefeated with two wins, while Duke sits behind it with a lone victory. Duke hosts Pittsburgh, which won the division last year but enters Saturday already nursing a league defeat. A Duke win effectively creates a must-win scenario every week for the Panthers, while a loss hands the driver's seat to Virginia, which isn't playing this week.

The rest of the division will likely play some form of eliminator this week when North Carolina plays at Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech plays at Miami. Given the issues facing the Hokies and Yellow Jackets, Saturday be mitigated for UNC, which beat Miami earlier this year. Luckily, both still have games against Virginia and Duke, which means they aren't totally eliminated from contention.

It's a granular conference situation playing out nationwide. No. 14 Iowa is at No. 19 Michigan in what amounts to a must-win game for the Wolverines. A second loss there would make winning the Big Ten incredibly difficult while effectively knocking them out of New Year's Six at-large consideration.

Later in the afternoon, No. 7 Auburn plays at No. 10 Florida at 3:30 p.m. in a similar situation in the SEC. Both teams still have to play undefeated division rivals, making this game must-win in order to prevent added pressure for the Alabama and Georgia games, respectively.

Even the service academies are getting into the act. Air Force is at Navy at 3:30 p.m. in the first round of the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. The Falcons play Army at the beginning of November, and a win in any of those games essentially eliminates opponents. Army is the current holder after winning its second consecutive trophy last year, and it would retain the trophy in the event of a tie.

Those of us pulling night owl duty can watch No. 25 Michigan State at No. 4 Ohio State at 7:30 p.m. with Cal at No. 13 Oregon at 10 p.m. I'll be watching Stanford host a 10:30 p.m. kickoff against No. 15 Washington, and No 16. Boise State kicks off at that same time against UNLV.

*****
Pregame Quote and Prediction

Why do we fall? So we can pick ourselves back up again. -Thomas Wayne, "Batman Begins"

I appeared on this week's episode of The Perch Podcast and told Bill Spaudling and Scott Mutryn something very simple. Last week's game against Wake Forest was a good college football game, and I thought BC played well enough to win the game. The loss came because of two botched plays, and it made outlining the defeat pretty straightforward and easy.

Reorganizing for a new game became pretty easy for BC because winning or losing didn't change too much of the postmortem analysis. This week's point of emphasis would've required a lookback at third down conversions and being better against the ball in defensive coverage. The pointed strategy for Louisville would've still been the same in practice, regardless of the outcome.

The Eagles still lost, so this week became about moving forward with a positive outlook. There is still plenty of football left on the schedule, and the Louisville game is always a crux for some important outcome. There is still plenty of opportunity for the Eagles to move into the eight or nine win echelon, but that assault's time is quickly dawning. By the time this month is over, BC will either be fighting for bowl positioning or just plain fighting for a bowl.

For that reason, this game is incredibly important and requires more than a bit of tunnel vision. This is going to be a grueling, physical, rugged, tough football game between two teams. Plenty rides on a win or a loss for either sideline. The winner is the team that picks itself up faster than the other and explodes into next week on the wheels of a celebration.

Boston College and Louisville will kick off at 12:30 p.m. on the ACC's Regional Sports Network affiliates, which can be seen locally on NESN, with out-of-market streaming available on WatchESPN.com or via the ESPN mobile app. The game is also being broadcast as part of the BC Learfield IMG Radio Network, which can be heard locally on WEEI 93.7 FM. The game is also available via satellite radio at Sirius channel 136, XM channel 194 and Online channel 956 or via streaming option on the TuneIn app.

Next Event

Players Mentioned

David Bailey

AJ Dillon

Tanner Karafa

TJ Rayam

W2WF: Louisville

Related News

Next Event

Players Mentioned

David Bailey

AJ Dillon

Tanner Karafa

TJ Rayam

Related Videos