Thursday Three-Pointer: Week Twelve

NCAA Basketball: Boston College at Virginia Tech

February 13, 2020 | Men's Basketball, #ForBoston Files

Recency bias against Miami might overshadow one of the best performances of the year

By: Dan Rubin, BCEagles.com contributor

CHESTNUT HILL, Mass. -- Basketball seasons always endure recency bias. Individual games are spread far enough apart to let analysis marinade on whichever game happened last, and hyperanalysis overtakes a previous positive or negative. Wins turn teams into world beaters capable of taking every game to the limit, where losses convert teams into freefalling spirits adrift on a rudderless, churning sea.

The truth resides somewhere in between. Every team carries its own entrenched positives and a certain amount of candid negative by the time February rolls around. It does nothing to calm the swirling winds or emotional roller coaster swings, but it always helps turn the page to the next result.

That will help buoy Boston College into the final stages of the weirdest, most confusing season in recent ACC history. The conference, known for its top-heavy list of basketball blue-blood powerhouses throughout the eastern seaboard, is arguably the biggest power player in the most historic region of the sport. The Tobacco Road roots spread to places like Syracuse and Notre Dame, and the spurts of success into the Northeast and Southeast placed a heavy crown on the head of the conference kings.

This year hasn't lined up that neatly. The conference's top dogs are still among the nation's best, but a parity through the rest of the league is making it virtually impossible to cleanly note or predict outcomes. A team like Duke can blow a team out at home, but it can struggle to beat a last place team at home, even if that team - for what it's worth - was North Carolina.

This week turned Boston College into that case study. The Eagles beat Virginia Tech on the road in one of the toughest environments in the ACC but got blown out by a Miami team earning its fourth conference victory of the season. From a recency bias standpoint, the win over the Hokies made the Eagles a sleeper pick for a deep ACC Tournament run with the right bye in the right matchup. The Miami loss probably made the Eagles wary of a potential late-season slump.

The truth is, of course, in between. A team like Duke can win the conference and pressure college basketball for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. It could also lose in its first game of the ACC Tournament and slump into the 68-team field.

BC is a team capable of making a late-season run in the ACC, and there's no questioning the Eagles could make noise in the ACC Tournament. The schedule could also produce a late-season slump if the team isn't careful.

There's a premium on every single game, and riding through the turbulent storm is what coaches, players and rosters endure. That's what college basketball is all about, and it's why the sport is as popular as ever.

As Jon Rothstein from CBS Sports like to say, "Anarchy? Nope. It's college basketball."

Here are the lessons learned from this week's results against both Virginia Tech and Miami:

1) Duncan-esque
Steffon Mitchell was an absolute force in BC's overtime victory at Virginia Tech. He forced the tempo at both ends of the floor and stood tall for the Eagles after Nik Popovic exited the game and both Jairus Hamilton and Luka Kraljevic fouled out. As the lone big man, he ran the floor with the guards and buried a four-point play late in the second half, then went into the post with moves in overtime reminiscent of Kevin McHale.

He finished the game with 21 points, 15 rebounds, six assists, a couple of blocks and a steal, marking the first ACC performer in a conference game with those numbers since Tim Duncan.

"He's a guy that works unbelievably hard to improve his game," head coach Jim Christian said. "He was lacking a little bit of confidence, but then he started making more plays. He did all the little things to make plays. It was good to see his hard work come out because I told him that the results don't always come on his time frame."

It was a full tilt, 45-minute performance for the junior and transformed him, overnight, into a known commodity and complete player. He's always been known as a primary rebounder, but his game flourished after Popovic exited. It went to another level when Hamilton fouled out late in the second half, and he iced the game in overtime with key free throws after drawing attention in Kraljevic's wake.

"He's second on our team in assists and one of the top rebounders in the league," Christian said. "The only thing different in that game is that he made jump shots and free throws. He's one of the top guys in the league in steals. He just doesn't get any notoriety. People don't look at him as a premier player in the league, but I think he is. Sometimes he gets overshadowed by a lack of points, but he does some great things."

2) The Youngsters grow up.
That Virginia Tech game became notable for another reason because it featured a number of young scorers on the Boston College roster. CJ Felder missed the game with the flu, and the aforementioned issues within the lineup over the course of the game forced a number of different players into extended minutes. In overtime, the BC lineup featured Steffon Mitchell and Derryck Thornton, but Julian Rishwain made a key rebound to seal the game late after Kamari Williams enjoyed a full-game breakout.

Williams had a couple of exclamation point players over the course of the entire game, but his true impact came in the second half. He nailed a three-pointer and finished well above the rim to juice up the BC bench and roster. In overtime, his length forced him into guarding the wing, but it enabled the Eagles to move faster in a potential preview of future coming attractions.

"Since the Pittsburgh game, we've played really well, continually," Jim Christian said. "Our shots have been inconsistent, but our effort and our commitment to winning is there. Our kids have a different look on them, and we fight back. We've played as well as anybody over the last couple of weeks with guys coming in and out of the lineup. We definitely have improved, and we will continue to (get better."

There's significant cause for optimism. Felder is already in the starting lineup when he's on the court, and Williams' breakout performance offered a tantalizing look at what BC could look like in the very near future. Rishwain's rebound in overtime helped clinch the win over Virginia Tech, and Jairus Hamilton continues to grow and mature over the course of every game he's played this season. Jay Heath's early-season breakout now has him as one of the better court generals at the point guard position.

Unfortunately, there is also significant inconsistency for players continuing to develop quickly. Heath shot poorly against Miami from beyond the arc, and the offense fell out of sync. Hamilton also didn't shoot well, going 1-for-5 from the floor. Felder, back after missing the Virginia Tech game, only attempted three shots and committed four fouls, and Rishwain failed to score in 17 minutes on the floor. Williams, for what it's worth, remained a full positive, going for 14 points and six rebounds with two fouls.

So there's obviously still room to grow, but it's clear this team is starting to transition out of the older generation into the next class's hands. With the onslaught and influx of oncoming talent, as difficult as the Miami game's result felt, BC is still trending upwards, especially over the greater picture of this season's completion.

3) All In To Win - Once/Always Eagles
Everyone knew Ky Bowman bet on himself when he entered the NBA Draft last season. He went undrafted, but Bowman always instilled confidence in anyone who talked to him because he knew he just needed a chance to play. He received that opportunity when everyone in Golden State went down injured this season.

The Warriors are struggling this year through a bad record, but Bowman's effort finally earned the full-time, NBA contract reward. His season-long average of seven points, two rebounds and three assists endeared him to head coach Steve Kerr, and after the trade deadline, the Warriors, which forced a decision by holding to Bowman for the maximum allowable timetable for two-way players, signed the former Eagle to a one-year deal. He's now a full-time member of the team and will factor into the lineup when Steph Curry returns in the near future.

Like Bowman, Jerome Robinson bet on himself by entering the NBA Draft but found himself in a crowded Los Angeles backcourt after the Clippers used a lottery-level pick on him. Robinson, who had to play behind Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams, never found sustained playing time, though his minutes per game increased this season with one start in 42 appearances. His undeniable talent made him an attractive trade chip, and at the deadline, Los Angeles sent him to Washington in a three-team deal involving the New York Knicks.

The trade made sense for all parties. The Clippers acquired Marcus Morris to bolster their frontcourt, and the Wizards acquired a young, budding guard for their future. Robinson already saw his time on court increased, including a 21-minute game against, ironically, the Knicks. It also gave Washington a young backcourt presence for Bradley Beal as John Wall prepared to cross the 30-year old barrier.

But if young Eagles are on the move, an older Eagle - Tyrese Rice - continues to hum along overseas. The Panathinaikos guard scored 15 points in 21 minutes in a 15-point win over Zenit, upping his season average to 10.5 points per game for the Greek powerhouse. He leads a list of about a half-dozen Eagles currently plying their craft in Europe, including Sean Marshall, who averaged just over 20 points per game for Fukuoka Rizing in Japan.

Layup Line: The Going Gets Tough(er)
Road games at Virginia Tech and Miami are tough places to play within four days of one another. The Hokies are always good at home in the remote outpost of western Virginia, and traveling home after the game to go to the ACC's most southern installation is an added hurdle.

BC returns home and receives an added day of rest before playing on Sunday this week, but it draws NC State in a key game for the Wolfpack. Their record, at 16-8, puts them on the cusp of a potential NCAA Tournament berth, and their 7-6 record in the ACC puts them within striking distance of third place Florida State. That makes this game critical for their tournament chances in a year where only four or five teams will get into the dance.

The front-end added break means a shortened break before BC travels for its second game of the next week, which is at Virginia. The Eagles defeated the Cavaliers at home earlier this year, but Virginia rebounded to assume fourth place in the league. Like NC State, that game will go a long way to determining tournament hopes for a team looking to enter the field of 68 as the reigning, defending national champion.

Both games are scheduled for national television on the ACC Network, with the NC State game tipping off at 6 p.m. and the Virginia game tipping off at 8 p.m. Both games' radio broadcast are also available on WEEI 850 AM.