W2WF: Pittsburgh

I love history, so indulge me by joining me for a trip back in time. We'll fire up the Delorean and crank up the speed to 88 miles per hour. The flux capacitor is, well, fluxing, and we're about to leave 2019. We're headed straight for 20 years ago, a time when Eiffel 65 topped the music charts with a song about being blue (da ba de da ba di).

Shakespeare in Love won Best Picture at the Academy Awards, beating out Saving Private Ryan. Fenway Park hosted the MLB All Star Game that year, but it really turned into the Pedro Martinez Show when he mowed down probably the most electric National League lineup in history. It came after Ted Williams held court for every living legend on the All Century Team.

In college football, Florida State met Virginia Tech in the BCS National Championship Game at the Sugar Bowl, and some guy named Brady was quarterbacking Michigan into the Orange Bowl. I never found out what happened to him, but I'm sure he didn't turn into much of a pro prospect.

The college football world was a completely different place in 1999, and it was none more obvious than during a bowl season where less than 50 teams played just under two dozen games.

It was a completely different kind of reward, and a .500 record didn't guarantee anything. Take Southern California, which had been ranked during the season. It sagged through a late-season losing streak, but rallied to a last-week win over a nationally-ranked Louisiana Tech team. The Trojans finished 6-6, but didn't earn an invite. For what it's worth, neither did Louisiana Tech, despite the fact that the Bulldogs finished 8-3 as a Division I-A Independent.

Something similar happened to Arizona, which missed a game with a 6-6 record. Ditto for Texas Tech, and I'd contend what happened there hurt worse. The Red Raiders beat Texas A&M during the season and finished with a 6-5 overall record and a 5-3 record in the Big 12. The Aggies went 8-4, but had an identical league record. In the end, Texas Tech missed a bowl game but Texas A&M, a preseason Top 10 team, went to the Alamo Bowl.

Ohio State - Ohio State! - spent virtually the entire season ranked after starting 4-2, but lost three straight games in November to drop out of the polls with a 6-6 overall record. The Buckeyes finished eighth in the Big Ten behind seven ranked teams, but they still missed a bowl.

Idaho went 7-4 and finished second in the Big West. Western Michigan won the Mid-American Conference's West Division. Neither went to bowl games.

I bring all of this up because this time of year always creates the same argument about if there are too many bowl games. A postseason featuring 15 bowl games in all of December now has 15 games before December 28. The rapid growth created more spots, which means this year features 78 slots for eligible teams.

I'm not sure if there's a right or wrong answer to all of this, so I try to stay out of the discussion about the number of games. I'm sure I held an opinion somewhere at one point, but I've kept an open mindedness to the evolution. I made a conscious decision to avoid talking about the what, eschewing it for how bowl games impact programs instead.

A bowl game includes extra practice time, and the additional development is invaluable for younger players. It's essentially a second spring practice, so the continuity creates lineage among seasons. Coaches love that because it helps build players, and it's even more impactful for players who saw limited time under the new, four-game redshirt rule.

More than that, though, is the opportunity for players to play one more game with their teammates. They sacrifice hours of film study and practice, and the locker room creates unbreakable bonds among players who all chose this school and this program for their college way of life. Recent NFL prospects chose to sit out games as a way to protect against injury, but the average player won't go pro for very long, if at all. Every chance to put on that helmet and uniform is so valuable to them, because it ends forever when it's finally over.

It's all a necessary piece of a team's cycle, especially when over half of the subdivision's 130 teams qualify for a game. That extra game is critical, and it's why a bowl game matters. Missing one hurts. There's a valuable argument and discussion, but each game is the most important to the schools accepting the invite.

Let's jump back in that Delorean and go back to the present. Everything I just said? That's what rides on Saturday's game when Boston College plays at Pittsburgh. It's one more opportunity for players to create one more opportunity. Hours of dedication boil down to a single game week. It's as basic as that.

Here's what to expect in the season finale on Saturday between the Eagles and the Panthers:

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Weekly Storylines

Strength on strength

Boston College is a run-first offense built around two running backs who struggled to gain traction last week. Pittsburgh's stout run defense held opponents under 100 yards six different times this year and hasn't given up a 200-yard day. A motivated, beefy offensive line takes on a motivated, beefy defensive line on a natural grass field in the cold Northeast.

"We'd much rather play better (defensive linemen)," offensive linemen Tyler Vrabel. "We know (Pittsburgh is) really good, but we know what we can do. We just want to bounce back and get our sixth win. I'll play both (their defensive ends). They're bigger dudes who can get around the edge quick."

Pittsburgh's defense is unlike anything BC saw earlier this year. The strong, fast defensive ends can run around the corner, so anticipating where to go in the scheme will determine if both AJ Dillon and David Bailey can burst through the line and into the second level.

"We're going to run the ball most of the time," Vrabel said. "I look at moves (on the defensive end), what they like to do, who likes to go around the edge. Having scout team guys practice those reps gives me the best look in practice, and I'm just watching the most film that I can.

"I've really grown in the last year and a half," he continued. "I'm excited to finish this year strong, get our sixth win, go to a bowl game and (improve) into next year."

Go around the Pickett fence.

It's a little weird to talk about strong defensive play in the wake of a blowout loss, but BC's secondary showed up in a big way against Notre Dame. It drastically improved against the Fighting Irish pass attack, holding Ian Book to 239 yards passing. It built confidence, even in defeat, allowing the unit to look towards the last game of the season with a strong backbone.

"(Pitt's) going to give us a challenge," defensive back Brandon Sebastian said. "We have some confidence after last week. We played well against Notre Dame, and we have to carry it over against Pitt, to do our job."

The Panthers offer a unique brand of attack because it's run-first mentality with a twist. Pitt is capable of establishing a ground game, having gone over 100 yards in seven games this year with three games over 175 yards, but the arrival of Mark Whipple as offensive coordinator enabled a few new wrinkles to the way Kenny Pickett passes the football.

The reputation of Pitt's ground-and-pound mentality is balanced by its passing attack. It hasn't produced a 1,000-yard rusher, meaning BC will face multiple looks within the Panthers' balance. AJ Davis leads the way with 489 yards, and Todd Sibley, Jr., V'Lique Carter and Vincent Davis all have 200 yards on the season. It also has 388 carries to 390 passing attempts by Pickett, who has 2,414 yards with 10 touchdowns and eight picks on the year.

"We addressed (deep ball coverage)," Sebastian said. "We have to play top-down on receivers and hone in on our technique. We busted some coverage so we have to focus on that in the film room. Once we do that, we'll be fine."

Win and In

The prospect of a 13th football game is a carrot dangled in front of the Boston College players. They all know what it offers, and every player has personal reasons for wanting to compete in one more last game of the season. It offers more development and growth, and there's the hope of using the extra 15 practices to jumpstart the next year of a career.

"I think I took 100 reps every day (during bowl practice)," Vrabel said of last postseason. "It's a big thing for younger guys. Those 15 extra days get you better. Then there's the bowl game itself, and it's all just a build-up to the next season."

Going to a game isn't an assumption at this point. There's a singular mindset in the locker room that the team has to win to get in. There's no other math equation necessary, and though no player ever really needs extra motivation to play in a football game, it doesn't hurt to embrace the challenge and heighten the anticipation.

"It's a big game for us," Sebastian added. "If we win, we go to a bowl game. That mindset puts everyone on the same track. Everyone's locked in. I wouldn't say it's pressure, but it's more anxiousness to get to the game. The last couple of years, we've been on a bowl streak. We have to get to our fourth one and attack this game (to get there)."

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Countdown to Kickoff

10…Ten different Eagles have caught at least one touchdown pass this season. It's the third straight year in which 10 players have one receiving score.
9…Pittsburgh is ranked No. 9 in overall total defense in the nation.
8…Boston College has played in eight different bowl locations since joining the ACC.
7...Seven Eagles have at least 10 receptions in 2019.
6…The third quarter is key: BC is 5-0 when leading after three quarters but is 0-6 when trailing. The Eagles have not been tied into the fourth this season.
5…BC only holds five losses in the Addazio era when leading at halftime; the Eagles are 37-5 in that situation.
4…Fast starts also matter: BC is 0-4 when opponents score first but holds a 5-2 record when scoring the first points of the game.
3…An opposing QB has not thrown for five touchdowns against BC in three years (Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech, 2016)
2…This is only the second meeting between BC and Pitt since the Panthers joined the ACC. The teams played in 2014, won by the Panthers, 30-20.
1…Only one player (Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin) is averaging more yards per game than AJ Dillon since Dillon was named the starting running back against Louisville in 2017.

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BC-Pitt X Factor

AJ Dillon

I think these teams can turn this game into a first half rock fight if they both establish the run. It's going to be cold and raw on the Allegheny River, though it looks like the wintry mix and shifting weather pattern will hold off for a day or two. What looked to be an impact storm on Saturday is now looking more like it will impact the Steelers' game against the Browns on Sunday.

BC needs a bounceback performance on offense, and if the game evolves into that hard-nosed, rugged, physical game I think is coming, it's up to Dillon to put one last stamp on a memorable 2019 regular season.

"I think the key is to keep (Pitt) guessing," quarterback Dennis Grosel said. "We need to keep (the defensive players) on their heels. If it's second and long or third and long, they can pin their ears back and come."

Dillon is one of the nation's elite runners, but Notre Dame bottled him up by sending stacked boxes of hats to the ball. He's going to face a similar situation this weekend, so the running game's execution boils down to how the offensive line handles that, along with how both Dillon and David Bailey find and attack the holes opened at the point of attack.

Grosel will mix in his play action, and his capability to scramble keeps chains moving. That only becomes an asset if the running game wears down a defensive front. With one game left in the regular season, this might be the last chance for the star running back to truly showcase his ability before heading into his offseason.

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Meteorology 101

Heinz Field historically featured notoriously bad turf incapable of holding up against a long season of turbulent weather. It spent most of the 2000s as a well-recognized mud pit, and the Steelers replaced the natural grass surface a few different times over the past decade. I think there was one year when the franchise replaced the soil, a nod to how difficult it is to maintain the natural playing surface in tough seasonal climates.

The alchemy is finally working. Pitt played there two weeks ago and wound up in a 34-27 overtime thriller against North Carolina, and the Steelers' last home game, three weeks ago, had perfect field conditions. It's a far cry from the time the Miami Dolphins punted into the ground at midfield last decade.

That's a good sign because the weather this weekend could be dicey. The original forecast of a wintry mix pushed forward a day, meaning it's more likely to impact the Steelers' game against Cleveland on Sunday unless it arrives on Monday. There was rain during the week with strong wind gusts, but it looks like it's just going to be a raw, cloudy day on Saturday for BC's game against Pitt.

I'm not sure how the weather is really going to impact this game. Thursday warmed up to 60 degrees in Pittsburgh with rain and wind, and Friday's going to endure a precipitous drop in temperature. It's going to stay above freezing, but I don't know if the field will dry out since it's going to stay mostly cloudy. The mercury isn't going to move at all during Saturday, meaning the late afternoon kickoff will be under sub-40 degree temperatures, continuing to drop.

I don't think the players are going to mind since this is an old Northeast rivalry, but it's still not going to be a breezy summertime stroll on the beach. I'd l be more concerned if I had tickets on Sunday to that Steelers game.

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The Bowl Race

Boston College needs to win on Saturday to get into a bowl game. Recent prognostications forecast a potential way to get into a game with a 5-7 record, but that relies on too many other variables and factors. That's certainly not how the Eagle locker room views bowl eligibility because the team, in its last regular season game, wants to win its way into the game. There's an anxiety, as Sebastian said, to go out and perform to earn the reward.

A number of factors are in play heading into this weekend. Virginia Tech is ranked No. 24 going into its de facto Coastal Division championship game against Virginia, and Clemson is ranked No. 3 in the College Football Playoff poll. That means the Hokies essentially clinch the Orange Bowl with a win and a Clemson victory over South Carolina.

It would set up an ACC Championship between the two teams since Clemson is already locked in. Since the winner gets the Orange Bowl bid, the Hokies would advance by beating the Tigers. A Clemson win, though, sends the Tigers to the CFP, which means the Hokies would likely go to the Orange Bowl anyways as the next-highest ranked ACC team.

How everything else shakes down is determined on if the ACC absorbs the Citrus Bowl and if Notre Dame falls into the conference's bowl selection structure. A best case scenario adds the bowl with the Irish going to a New Year's Six game. If that happens, Louisville, Virginia and Wake Forest all have a shot at going to the Russell Athletic Bowl, which shifts everyone up one game.

The remaining clump then slots into the Tier One games. Pittsburgh is the most obvious choice for those games, along with the possibility of all three of the aforementioned schools dropping down. The more likely scenario drops one or two, which means at least one 6-6 team gets into Tier One. With a win over Pittsburgh, that puts BC into play.

If BC wins, I think the more obvious destination is a secondary selection. The Military Bowl has first selection in the secondary list, followed by the Independence Bowl and Quick Lane Bowl. In a best-case scenario, UNC loses this week to drop to 5-7, and the absorption of other games, along with the promotion of BC with a 6-6 record and .500 conference record, pushes the team into Tier One consideration. So there's still plenty to play out, and if BC is victorious on Saturday, there will be discussions and internal talking points to be had at a paygrade well above my uneducated speculation.

A worst-case scenario is a BC loss and bowl ineligibility. That negates all of this.

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Scoreboard Watching, ACC Edition

The last weekend of the regular season brings historical rivalries to the forefront of college football. In the ACC, that means a number of big-time games with longstanding implications are on the docket.

It starts on Friday with that Virginia-Virginia Tech game in Charlottesville at 12 p.m, then continues on Saturday with the Palmetto Bowl's annual game between Clemson and South Carolina at noon. That kicks off opposite the Clean, Old Fashioned Hate game between Georgia and Georgia Tech and the Governor's Cup between Louisville and Kentucky.

A couple of other in-state rivalries kick off at night. North Carolina heads to Raleigh to play NC State in the Carolina-State Game at 7 p.m. and Florida State plays No. 11 Florida at 7:30 p.m in the Sunshine Showdown.

There are a number of other games worth mentioning, though some aren't typical rivalry games. Wake Forest plays at Syracuse at 12:30 p.m. before BC plays at Pittsburgh in an old Big East game at 3:30 p.m. The BC game is opposite Miami-Duke on Tobacco Road.

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Scoreboard Watching, NCAA Edition

This is going to be a wild weekend in college football. On Friday, No. 19 Cincinnati plays at No. 18 Memphis in a game that could determine which team is the Group of Five representative in the New Year's Six. No. 20 Boise State, on the cusp of those two teams, is at Colorado State at the same time, at 3:30 p.m. No. 25 Appalachian State is also in the mix, playing at Troy at 6 p.m.

On Saturday, No. 1 Ohio State heads to the Team Up North to play No. 13 Michigan at noon as part of an early explosion of in-state rivalry games. Northwestern plays Illinois at the same time, as does Indiana and Purdue in the Big Ten.

It spills into the afternoon, where No. 12 Wisconsin is at No. 8 Minnesota at 3:30 p.m. That's opposite the Iron Bowl between No. 5 Alabama and No. 12 Auburn. Then at night, No. 7 Oklahoma plays No. 21 Oklahoma State.

All of this leads to next week's conference championship weekend and the College Football Playoff's final determination. That will slot teams into different bowl games from there.

I would be remiss if I didn't at least mention the best college football game of the season in two weeks. The Army-Navy game is the annual capstone to the season on December 14, and it's the only event where all the participants on the field are willing to die for the people watching it. It's one of the few appointment television sports events of the year, and it's always fun, in my family, to watch who is rooting for a particular side. My in-laws have sent a number of people into the Army, but I know several people who were aviators in both the Navy and Air Force. It's always fun to watch them pair up against one another, and I had personal experience working for Army during the Army-Navy game two years ago. It's a favorite memory by far (Go Army! Beat Navy!)

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Pregame Quote and Prediction

It ain't about how hard you hit. It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward. That's how winning is done. -Rocky Balboa

I always felt Rocky Balboa was a criminally underrated movie. I saw the first showing on the first day it was available in theaters because I'm a huge Rocky fan, and it's gained weight with me as I've grown a little older. The overarching storyline of how a simulation causes Rocky to fight the heavyweight champion of the world is still a little far-fetched, but the underlying message of never giving up, no matter what, runs deep.

Boston College started this season with an abstract message open to personal interpretation. The team wanted to "do more," so how each individual person understood that message blended into how the combined roster responded. It remained fluid through the schedule's progression, leading to this final stage over Thanksgiving weekend against Pittsburgh.

Saturday is going to be a physical football game on a cold, grass field. It's going to be tough and rugged, a blend of old school football and Northeast grit. Bodies are going to batter each other in a throwback to a bruising era.

But it doesn't matter how many hits or bruises this game doles out. The main goal is just to move and push forward. It's one more game to earn one more game, a playoff atmosphere against a former rival.

Boston College and Pittsburgh will kick off at 3:30 p.m. from Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pa. The game can be seen on ACC Network or on WatchESPN.com for viewers with cable providers carrying the channel. Radio broadcast is available via the BC Learfield IMG Sports Network, locally heard on WEEI 93.7 FM. The game can also be heard on satellite radio via Sirius channel 121, XM channel 203 and Online channel 966. Streaming audio is available via the TuneIn app on mobile devices.

Next Event

Players Mentioned

David Bailey

AJ Dillon

Dennis Grosel

Brandon Sebastian

Tyler Vrabel

W2WF: Pittsburgh

Next Event

Players Mentioned

David Bailey

AJ Dillon

Dennis Grosel

Brandon Sebastian

Tyler Vrabel

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