W2WF: Can Ryan Lead Falcons Past Patriots?
February 04, 2017 | Football, #ForBoston Files
Only Super Bowl Sunday has that drama and anticipation unto its own.
The Super Bowl's come a long way from its origins over 50 years ago. In January, 1967, the Green Bay Packers defeated the Kansas City Chiefs, 35-10, in the first ever AFL-NFL World Championship Game. Played in California at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, it was just over two-thirds full and wasn't close to a sell-out of its 90,000 seat capacity. It was televised on two stations and it resembled nothing of the billion-dollar pageant of the modern day.
In 2017, the game is so popular that it dwarfs every other television broadcast. The previous nine Super Bowls are all in the top-10, most-watched productions in American history and 19 Super Bowls are in the top-20 single broadcasts of all-time. It would be a clear sweep if not for the series finale of M*A*S*H.
The Super Bowl is so popular that every other major event is measured against it. Every industry's biggest event is called its "Super Bowl," though none carry the weight of the actual game itself. It's manifested itself as an unofficial holiday and America virtually stops to sit and watch a single-elimination football game.Â
Because of its weight, Super Bowl heroes and moments are immortalized forever. Every game has a seminal moment where a legend is born, from John Riggins' run to glory for Washington in Super Bowl XVII to Marcus Allen's run against that same Washington team the next year. There's John Elway's helicopter touchdown run in Super Bowl XXXIIÂ and there's the Tennessee Titans coming one yard short of tying St. Louis in Super Bowl XXXIV.
There's Joe Montana's drive to beat Cincinnati in Super Bowl XXIII ("Hey, is that John Candy?") and there's Buffalo's four-straight losses, including the infamous Wide Right of Super Bowl XXV. And even those don't come close to Namath's guarantee and run off the field in Super Bowl III.
On Sunday, Boston College alumni Matt Ryan and Josh Keyes have a chance to write their name into the book of immortality. For Ryan, it's a chance to join the Montanas and Namaths and Elways and Aikmans of the world in the rare class of Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. It's a chance to achieve an exclusive greatness on sports' grandest of stages.
To do that, however, he'll need to go through a franchise that's transformed its identity into arguably the greatest of all time. The New England Patriots are in the midst of a sustained greatness never before seen in the NFL. In an era of parity, this is the seventh Super Bowl for Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in 16 years. No franchise is more successful on the field over the last decade-plus and a win in this game would end the argument once and for all as to who the greatest of all time really is.
Maybe it's because it's a "Boston College guy" against the hometown Massachusetts team but this Super Bowl feels different. It feels more dramatic, though I'm sure people from Denver and Charlotte may feel differently about last year's. There's an undercurrent of urgency for both sides, and, if nothing else, BC will take center stage for a game that has never been seen before and will never be seen again.
***
Weekly Storylines (Matt Ryan Edition)
In reviving an old friend of a post for this game, it's worth looking at the things that Ryan does well on the field, within the context of the Atlanta Falcons, and how that may impact the game. The Super Bowl itself is going to have so many different layers, and while I would love to sit down and talk about Tom Brady all day, I'll instead focus on things from a Ryan-slanted point of view.
Deliberate but fast. One thing that's made Ryan a presumptive MVP this season is his ability to dictate pace on the field. Experts recognize the Falcons as a fast team playing an up-tempo style but that's not entirely true. The Falcons are actually one of the slower teams overall in the league, clocking in at 23rd with a total average of over 28 seconds per play.
But the average happens because their tempo fluctuates based on the game situation. When they're within a touchdown of their opponent - leading or trailing - they're one of the 10 fastest teams in the league at just over 27 seconds per play. In a neutral situation, they jump to fourth fastest. So their tempo reputation is well-earned because they know how to move the ball up and down the field.
Honestly, the Falcons should be able to move the ball against the Patriot defense. New England's defense allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 62 percent of their passes this year and they allowed an average of 5.2 yards per play. That plays right into Ryan's 70 percent completion percentage and nearly 5,000 passing yards. There's a good chance Atlanta will be able to sustain some drives against the Patriot defense but therein lies the rub.
Balancing Act. In 2011, Atlanta, slotted to pick 27th in the first round, traded its first-round, second-round and fourth-round picks - and its first-round and fourth-round picks in 2012 - to Cleveland so it could take Julio Jones with the sixth overall pick. It gave Ryan the Randy Moss-type, game-breaking receiver that could change everything for the offense.
As good as Jones is, Bill Belichick is a master at limiting a team's best option in the Super Bowl. In Super Bowl XXXVI, for example, the Patriots took away both Marshall Faulk and Torry Holt. In Super Bowl XLII, Plaxico Burress only had two catches on nine targets, though one ultimately was the game-winning score. That forces other options to the table, like how the Giants utilized someone like David Tyree, a player with four catches on the entire season, for five well-placed targets and a touchdown.
Ryan needs to prepare for Julio Jones to become a non-factor. If he's on his game and free, then that's great for Atlanta; they can use him all day long in that situation. But if Jones isn't catching targets, there needs to be other options. Matty Ice has been very good at spreading the ball to players like Mohammed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel, but he could look to get even more players involved, including tight ends Jacob Tamme or Austin Hooper or wide receiver Justin Hardy.
6 > 3. For all the talk of this game turning into a shootout, only two Super Bowls ever featured both teams scoring 30 points. Pittsburgh beat Dallas, 35-31, in Super Bowl XIII and Baltimore beat San Francisco, 34-31, in Super Bowl XLVII. Removing the outlier blowout game in 2014, where Seattle blew out Denver, 43-8, the average score since 2010 is 28-21.
That means points are at an extreme premium. The margin of difference is a single touchdown on a single drive throughout the game. If a long drive inside an opponent's 10-yard line stalls and results in a field goal, the points coming off the board could be the difference in the game.
Think about Super Bowl XLIX. The Seahawks started the third quarter with a 72-yard drive that stalled for a field goal. If that becomes a touchdown instead, Seattle goes into its final drive of the game a) tied or b) trailing by one. Instead of needing a touchdown, which led to Malcolm Butler's interception, Pete Carroll would've been able to kick a field goal to win the Super Bowl. Butler's pick gets the glory, but there's always something more that should've been done besides handing off to Marshawn Lynch on the one-yard line.
That's the margin of error in the Super Bowl. And that margin of error dictates who wins and who goes home empty handed.
***
The Eyes of Texas Are Upon You
This is only Matt Ryan's second game played in Houston. In 2011, the Texans beat the Falcons, 17-10. Ryan went 20-for-47 for 267 yards and a touchdown, but he threw two interceptions in that game. Arian Foster rumbled for 111 yards on 31 attempts and a touchdown for Houston in the win.
Neither Ryan nor Keyes played a game in the entire state of Texas while playing for the Eagles.
***
Dome Sweet Dome
Ryan's had the good fortune of playing the majority of his postseason career indoors. In what will be his eighth postseason game appearance, he's played only one game outdoors. That was in 2012, when the Falcons went to New York and were blown out by the Giants, 24-2.
This is also only the third postseason game Ryan's played away from Atlanta. In 2009, his first postseason game was at Arizona, where the Cardinals defeated the Falcons, 30-24. The remaining games have all been at home, including the last four.
***
Prediction Time
If Matt Ryan is going to become the next Super Bowl hero, he's going to have to do it against a team that delivered time and time again on the biggest stage. The Patriots are 24-9 in the postseason with Tom Brady under center and they've won four Super Bowl championships. The only other player with a case for NFL MVP as strong as Matt Ryan is the familiar No. 12 that made the Patriots the most successful franchise of the modern era.
But like noted Atlanta Falcons fan Ric Flair once said, "To be the man, you gotta beat the man." The Patriots are, without a doubt, the man. Unseating them would be an accomplishment few can claim and the honor would go to someone who is universally loved and respected among the Boston College ranks.
Matt Ryan has been everything anyone could want in a representative of Boston College. He's handled himself with class and dignity and there's not a single person who can say anything bad about him. Nobody deserves a championship more than him, and, as a diehard Patriots fan, that I can say that is should illustrate just how much character he has.
In a one-game series, anything can and usually does happen. Either way, the next chapter of Boston College football history will be written by an alum who holds the balance in his hands.
In 2017, the game is so popular that it dwarfs every other television broadcast. The previous nine Super Bowls are all in the top-10, most-watched productions in American history and 19 Super Bowls are in the top-20 single broadcasts of all-time. It would be a clear sweep if not for the series finale of M*A*S*H.
The Super Bowl is so popular that every other major event is measured against it. Every industry's biggest event is called its "Super Bowl," though none carry the weight of the actual game itself. It's manifested itself as an unofficial holiday and America virtually stops to sit and watch a single-elimination football game.Â
Because of its weight, Super Bowl heroes and moments are immortalized forever. Every game has a seminal moment where a legend is born, from John Riggins' run to glory for Washington in Super Bowl XVII to Marcus Allen's run against that same Washington team the next year. There's John Elway's helicopter touchdown run in Super Bowl XXXIIÂ and there's the Tennessee Titans coming one yard short of tying St. Louis in Super Bowl XXXIV.
There's Joe Montana's drive to beat Cincinnati in Super Bowl XXIII ("Hey, is that John Candy?") and there's Buffalo's four-straight losses, including the infamous Wide Right of Super Bowl XXV. And even those don't come close to Namath's guarantee and run off the field in Super Bowl III.
On Sunday, Boston College alumni Matt Ryan and Josh Keyes have a chance to write their name into the book of immortality. For Ryan, it's a chance to join the Montanas and Namaths and Elways and Aikmans of the world in the rare class of Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. It's a chance to achieve an exclusive greatness on sports' grandest of stages.
To do that, however, he'll need to go through a franchise that's transformed its identity into arguably the greatest of all time. The New England Patriots are in the midst of a sustained greatness never before seen in the NFL. In an era of parity, this is the seventh Super Bowl for Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in 16 years. No franchise is more successful on the field over the last decade-plus and a win in this game would end the argument once and for all as to who the greatest of all time really is.
Maybe it's because it's a "Boston College guy" against the hometown Massachusetts team but this Super Bowl feels different. It feels more dramatic, though I'm sure people from Denver and Charlotte may feel differently about last year's. There's an undercurrent of urgency for both sides, and, if nothing else, BC will take center stage for a game that has never been seen before and will never be seen again.
***
Weekly Storylines (Matt Ryan Edition)
In reviving an old friend of a post for this game, it's worth looking at the things that Ryan does well on the field, within the context of the Atlanta Falcons, and how that may impact the game. The Super Bowl itself is going to have so many different layers, and while I would love to sit down and talk about Tom Brady all day, I'll instead focus on things from a Ryan-slanted point of view.
Deliberate but fast. One thing that's made Ryan a presumptive MVP this season is his ability to dictate pace on the field. Experts recognize the Falcons as a fast team playing an up-tempo style but that's not entirely true. The Falcons are actually one of the slower teams overall in the league, clocking in at 23rd with a total average of over 28 seconds per play.
But the average happens because their tempo fluctuates based on the game situation. When they're within a touchdown of their opponent - leading or trailing - they're one of the 10 fastest teams in the league at just over 27 seconds per play. In a neutral situation, they jump to fourth fastest. So their tempo reputation is well-earned because they know how to move the ball up and down the field.
Honestly, the Falcons should be able to move the ball against the Patriot defense. New England's defense allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 62 percent of their passes this year and they allowed an average of 5.2 yards per play. That plays right into Ryan's 70 percent completion percentage and nearly 5,000 passing yards. There's a good chance Atlanta will be able to sustain some drives against the Patriot defense but therein lies the rub.
Balancing Act. In 2011, Atlanta, slotted to pick 27th in the first round, traded its first-round, second-round and fourth-round picks - and its first-round and fourth-round picks in 2012 - to Cleveland so it could take Julio Jones with the sixth overall pick. It gave Ryan the Randy Moss-type, game-breaking receiver that could change everything for the offense.
As good as Jones is, Bill Belichick is a master at limiting a team's best option in the Super Bowl. In Super Bowl XXXVI, for example, the Patriots took away both Marshall Faulk and Torry Holt. In Super Bowl XLII, Plaxico Burress only had two catches on nine targets, though one ultimately was the game-winning score. That forces other options to the table, like how the Giants utilized someone like David Tyree, a player with four catches on the entire season, for five well-placed targets and a touchdown.
Ryan needs to prepare for Julio Jones to become a non-factor. If he's on his game and free, then that's great for Atlanta; they can use him all day long in that situation. But if Jones isn't catching targets, there needs to be other options. Matty Ice has been very good at spreading the ball to players like Mohammed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel, but he could look to get even more players involved, including tight ends Jacob Tamme or Austin Hooper or wide receiver Justin Hardy.
6 > 3. For all the talk of this game turning into a shootout, only two Super Bowls ever featured both teams scoring 30 points. Pittsburgh beat Dallas, 35-31, in Super Bowl XIII and Baltimore beat San Francisco, 34-31, in Super Bowl XLVII. Removing the outlier blowout game in 2014, where Seattle blew out Denver, 43-8, the average score since 2010 is 28-21.
That means points are at an extreme premium. The margin of difference is a single touchdown on a single drive throughout the game. If a long drive inside an opponent's 10-yard line stalls and results in a field goal, the points coming off the board could be the difference in the game.
Think about Super Bowl XLIX. The Seahawks started the third quarter with a 72-yard drive that stalled for a field goal. If that becomes a touchdown instead, Seattle goes into its final drive of the game a) tied or b) trailing by one. Instead of needing a touchdown, which led to Malcolm Butler's interception, Pete Carroll would've been able to kick a field goal to win the Super Bowl. Butler's pick gets the glory, but there's always something more that should've been done besides handing off to Marshawn Lynch on the one-yard line.
That's the margin of error in the Super Bowl. And that margin of error dictates who wins and who goes home empty handed.
***
The Eyes of Texas Are Upon You
This is only Matt Ryan's second game played in Houston. In 2011, the Texans beat the Falcons, 17-10. Ryan went 20-for-47 for 267 yards and a touchdown, but he threw two interceptions in that game. Arian Foster rumbled for 111 yards on 31 attempts and a touchdown for Houston in the win.
Neither Ryan nor Keyes played a game in the entire state of Texas while playing for the Eagles.
***
Dome Sweet Dome
Ryan's had the good fortune of playing the majority of his postseason career indoors. In what will be his eighth postseason game appearance, he's played only one game outdoors. That was in 2012, when the Falcons went to New York and were blown out by the Giants, 24-2.
This is also only the third postseason game Ryan's played away from Atlanta. In 2009, his first postseason game was at Arizona, where the Cardinals defeated the Falcons, 30-24. The remaining games have all been at home, including the last four.
***
Prediction Time
If Matt Ryan is going to become the next Super Bowl hero, he's going to have to do it against a team that delivered time and time again on the biggest stage. The Patriots are 24-9 in the postseason with Tom Brady under center and they've won four Super Bowl championships. The only other player with a case for NFL MVP as strong as Matt Ryan is the familiar No. 12 that made the Patriots the most successful franchise of the modern era.
But like noted Atlanta Falcons fan Ric Flair once said, "To be the man, you gotta beat the man." The Patriots are, without a doubt, the man. Unseating them would be an accomplishment few can claim and the honor would go to someone who is universally loved and respected among the Boston College ranks.
Matt Ryan has been everything anyone could want in a representative of Boston College. He's handled himself with class and dignity and there's not a single person who can say anything bad about him. Nobody deserves a championship more than him, and, as a diehard Patriots fan, that I can say that is should illustrate just how much character he has.
In a one-game series, anything can and usually does happen. Either way, the next chapter of Boston College football history will be written by an alum who holds the balance in his hands.
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